TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Hamburger SV vs. FC Augsburg
Volume:
$611,545
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for Saturday, April 4, 2026 between Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive binary markets (Augsburg win, Hamburg win, draw), each resolving independently based on match outcome. Kalshi presents three markets that all resolve YES regardless of outcome—creating a logical contradiction where every possible match result triggers YES on all three Kalshi markets simultaneously.Hero Tip:
Avoid Kalshi markets in this group entirely. They are fundamentally unresolvable as written: a draw resolves YES on all three markets, Hamburg win resolves YES on all three markets, and Augsburg win resolves YES on all three markets. This violates basic market logic. Polymarket's three binary markets are standard and resolvable. Trade only on Polymarket.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one resolves YES based on the 90-minute match outcome. Each market (Augsburg win, Hamburg win, draw) resolves YES or NO independently based on whether that specific outcome occurs. Primary source is official Bundesliga statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours of match conclusion.
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi presents three markets that all resolve YES if any of the three possible outcomes occur (tie, Hamburg win, or Augsburg win). Since every match must end in one of these three outcomes, all three Kalshi markets will always resolve YES simultaneously, creating a logical impossibility and data integrity failure. The market structure is unresolvable.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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