TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Göztepe SK vs. Kayserispor
Volume:
$204,406
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Turkish Super Lig soccer match between Göztepe SK and Kayserispor scheduled for February 15, 2026. Multiple prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket are tracking the outcome (win/loss/draw) based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents a logical impossibility (three mutually exclusive outcomes all resolving to Yes), and Polymarket applies asymmetric cancellation rules across its three markets (draw resolves Yes on cancellation; win markets resolve No). This creates both internal incoherence and cross-platform settlement risk.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi until the market structure is clarified—it appears malformed. On Polymarket, the draw market is asymmetrically protected in cancellation scenarios. If you believe cancellation risk is material, the draw market offers better downside protection than either win market.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: All three outcomes (Kayserispor win, Göztepe win, Tie) are stated to resolve to Yes. No postponement or cancellation clause is provided. This is logically impossible since only one outcome can occur. Key Quote: 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Three separate markets with outcome-specific resolution. Draw market resolves Yes if game ends in draw OR is canceled with no make-up. Win markets resolve No if canceled with no make-up. Postponement keeps markets open pending completion. Key Quotes: Draw market: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes.' Win markets: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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