Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Polymarket and Kalshi both resolve based on the official match outcome (win, loss, or draw) for the Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Riestra game on April 14, 2026, considering only the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, with identical postponement and cancellation handling.
Primary resolution logic:
Official statistics from CONMEBOL (the governing body for South American soccer) or credible reporting consensus if official statistics are not published within 2 hours of match conclusion.
Core resolution logic:
Market resolves based on the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time (no extra time or penalties).
If CD Riestra wins: Polymarket 'Will CD Riestra win' resolves YES; Kalshi 'Riestra wins' resolves YES; all other outcome markets resolve NO.
If Grêmio FBPA wins: Polymarket 'Will Grêmio FBPA win' resolves YES; Kalshi 'Gremio wins' resolves YES; all other outcome markets resolve NO.
If the match ends in a draw: Polymarket 'end in a draw' resolves YES; Kalshi 'Tie wins' resolves YES; all other outcome markets resolve NO.
If the match is postponed, all markets remain open until the game is completed.
If the match is canceled entirely with no make-up game: Polymarket markets resolve NO except the draw market which resolves YES; Kalshi markets all resolve YES (as any outcome is technically satisfied by cancellation).
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Cancellation Resolution Asymmetry: Polymarket's draw market resolves YES if the game is canceled with no make-up, while Polymarket's win markets resolve NO. Kalshi's markets all resolve YES upon cancellation. This creates a logical inconsistency at the platform level but both platforms are internally consistent with their stated rules.
Postponement Handling: Both platforms keep markets open if the game is postponed, with resolution deferred until the match is actually completed. No time limit is specified for how long markets remain open during postponement.
Resolution Source Fallback: Both platforms use official CONMEBOL statistics as primary source, but allow credible reporting consensus if official statistics are not published within 2 hours of match conclusion.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon completion of the match on April 14, 2026 (or rescheduled date if postponed), based on the official final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If official statistics are not published within 2 hours, resolution may be based on credible reporting consensus.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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