TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets
Volume:
$12,264,111
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for April 8 at 9:00PM ET: If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the Nuggets win, the market will resolve to "Nuggets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution scopes. Polymarket resolves on specific game outcomes (moneyline, spreads, player props, totals) with detailed threshold logic, while Kalshi's market resolves YES if either team wins, making it logically impossible to distinguish between outcomes and rendering it unresolvable as a binary contract.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across these platforms as if they are equivalent. Polymarket markets settle on precise game results and player statistics with clear win/loss conditions. Kalshi's market is structurally broken: it states 'If Denver wins... then resolves to Yes' AND 'If Memphis wins... then resolves to Yes', meaning both outcomes trigger YES. This violates binary contract logic. Clarify with Kalshi whether this is a typo before placing any bets.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers 93 granular markets covering moneyline, spreads (multiple thresholds: -21.5, -22.5, -23.5), over/unders (multiple totals: 243.5–247.5), first-half variants, and individual player props (points, rebounds, assists) with precise threshold logic. Each market has a single clear resolution path based on final or halftime box score. Example: 'This market will resolve to Nuggets if the Nuggets win the game by 22 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Grizzlies.' Source: Official NBA box score on NBA.com.
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi presents a single market with contradictory resolution logic: 'If Denver wins the Memphis at Denver professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Memphis wins the Memphis at Denver professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility—both possible outcomes (Denver win or Memphis win) are mapped to YES, leaving no path to NO resolution. The market is unresolvable as a binary contract.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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