TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Grizzlies vs. Bucks
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for April 5 at 3:30PM ET: If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the Bucks win, the market will resolve to "Bucks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution scopes. Polymarket markets resolve based on the final game outcome (moneyline, spreads, totals, player props), while Kalshi's market resolves YES if either team wins, making it logically impossible to distinguish between outcomes and rendering it unresolvable as a binary contract.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's Memphis vs Milwaukee market. It resolves YES regardless of which team wins, violating basic binary contract logic. All Polymarket markets (moneyline, spreads, totals, player props) are resolvable and internally consistent with each other. Trade only on Polymarket for this event.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard sports betting logic: Polymarket offers 48 distinct markets covering moneyline (Grizzlies vs Bucks winner), multiple spread thresholds (Bucks -3.5 through -16.5), multiple total thresholds (226.5 through 238.5), first-half variants, and individual player props. Each market has mutually exclusive outcomes (YES or NO based on specific threshold/outcome). Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Bucks if the Bucks win the game by 6 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Grizzlies.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's single market states 'If Memphis wins the Memphis at Milwaukee professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Milwaukee wins the Memphis at Milwaukee professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical contradiction where the market resolves YES for all possible outcomes (Memphis win = YES, Milwaukee win = YES), leaving no NO resolution path. This violates fundamental binary contract structure and makes the market unresolvable.
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