A college basketball game between Grambling State Tigers and Southern Jaguars scheduled for February 21, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET. Multiple prediction markets cover the moneyline winner, point spread, and total points over/under at various thresholds.
Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction: it states the market resolves to Yes if either team wins, making it impossible to distinguish a Yes resolution from a No resolution. This is a data integrity failure that renders the market fundamentally unresolvable.
Hero Tip:
Do not trade on the Kalshi market. Use Polymarket moneyline, spread, and total markets as the authoritative settlement sources. Confirm final official NCAA score and game completion status before settlement.
Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket: Five distinct markets with clear binary or ternary logic: (1) Moneyline resolves to winner name; (2) Spread resolves to Southern Jaguars if margin is 6+ points, otherwise Grambling State Tigers; (3-5) Three total markets resolve Over/Under at 141.5, 142.5, and 143.5 thresholds. All postponed games remain open; canceled games with no makeup resolve 50-50. Source: NCAA.com final score including overtime.
Kalshi: Single market states: 'If Southern University wins... resolves to Yes. If Grambling St. wins... resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility where both outcomes map to the same resolution (Yes), leaving no valid No outcome. Critical data integrity failure.
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