TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. San Francisco Dons
Volume:
$1,834,670
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
A men's college basketball game between Gonzaga Bulldogs and San Francisco Dons scheduled for February 18, 2026 at 11:00 PM ET. Markets span moneyline (winner), multiple spread thresholds, and over/under total points.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents 11 overlapping binary spread markets with redundant thresholds, while Polymarket uses three discrete spread thresholds. Kalshi also includes a San Francisco win condition absent from Polymarket's spread markets. The underlying game outcome is the same, but market structure and granularity differ significantly.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate product architectures. Kalshi is a collection of individual binary bets on specific spread thresholds; Polymarket is a categorical outcome market with discrete spread tiers. For arbitrage or hedging, map Kalshi thresholds to Polymarket equivalents: Kalshi >14.5 aligns with Polymarket -14.5 (15+ point win). Confirm exact threshold before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 11 separate binary YES/NO markets on Gonzaga spread conditions (>2.5, >5.5, >8.5, >11.5, >14.5, >17.5, >20.5, >23.5, >26.5, >29.5 points) plus one San Francisco condition (>1.5 points). Each market independently resolves YES if its condition is met. Key Quote: If Gonzaga wins by more than X points, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Polymarket: Discrete categorical markets: moneyline (Gonzaga vs San Francisco), three spread markets at -13.5 (14+ point win), -14.5 (15+ point win), -15.5 (16+ point win), and three over/under totals (148.5, 149.5, 150.5). Each spread market resolves to either Gonzaga or San Francisco based on final margin. Key Quote: This market will resolve to Gonzaga Bulldogs if the Gonzaga Bulldogs win the game by 15 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to San Francisco Dons.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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