TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Germany vs. Ghana
Volume:
$3,710,569
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Monday, March 30, 2026 between Germany and Ghana.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents three separate binary markets (one per outcome: Germany win, Ghana win, Tie) that each resolve YES if their respective outcome occurs, creating a logical structure where exactly one resolves YES. Polymarket presents three separate binary markets (Germany win, Ghana win, Draw) with standard YES/NO resolution, where exactly one resolves YES and the other two resolve NO. Both platforms agree on the underlying event (Germany vs. Ghana on March 30, 2026, 90 minutes plus stoppage time) and primary source (FIFA/official organizers), but Kalshi's market design uses an affirmative resolution for each outcome, while Polymarket uses standard binary YES/NO logic.Hero Tip:
Both platforms will reach the same final outcome (one winner, two losers), but the market mechanics differ: on Kalshi, you are betting on a specific outcome resolving YES; on Polymarket, you are betting on a specific outcome resolving YES while the other two resolve NO. The substantive resolution is identical, but traders should be aware of the structural difference in how the markets are framed.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Aligned with Polymarket on underlying event and source: Kalshi resolves each of its three markets (Germany win, Ghana win, Tie) to YES if that outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Key quote: 'If Germany wins the Germany vs Ghana professional Intl Friendlies soccer game originally scheduled for Mar 30, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Aligned with Kalshi on underlying event and source: Polymarket resolves each of its three markets (Germany win, Ghana win, Draw) to YES if that outcome occurs, or NO if it does not, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Key quote: 'This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.