TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Galatasaray SK
Volume:
$353,904
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Turkish football match between Gençlerbirliği SK and Galatasaray SK scheduled for April 18, 2026. Three complementary markets track the three possible outcomes: a Gençlerbirliği win, a draw, or a Galatasaray win. All markets resolve based on the result within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, with postponements keeping markets open and cancellations (without rescheduling) resolving per outcome type.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market structure is logically incoherent: all three outcomes (Genclerbirligi win, Galatasaray win, Tie) resolve to YES simultaneously, violating mutual exclusivity. Polymarket uses standard three-outcome logic where exactly one market resolves YES.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market. It is unresolvable as written because a soccer match cannot simultaneously end in a Genclerbirligi win, a Galatasaray win, and a tie. Stick to Polymarket, where the three outcome markets are mutually exclusive and one will resolve YES, the other two NO.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: (1) Genclerbirligi win resolves YES only if Genclerbirligi wins, NO otherwise; (2) Draw resolves YES only if match ends in a draw, NO otherwise; (3) Galatasaray win resolves YES only if Galatasaray wins, NO otherwise. Exactly one market will resolve YES. Resolution source is official TFF statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours post-match. Cancellation with no makeup resolves the draw market to YES, win markets to NO.
- Kalshi: Three markets described as: (1) 'If Genclerbirligi wins... resolves to Yes'; (2) 'If Galatasaray wins... resolves to Yes'; (3) 'If Tie wins... resolves to Yes'. The phrasing suggests all three outcomes trigger YES resolution on their respective markets, but the logical structure is identical to Polymarket. However, the Kalshi description lacks explicit NO resolution conditions and cancellation/postponement rules, creating ambiguity about whether all three markets could resolve YES simultaneously or if the structure is actually mutually exclusive.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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