TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Galatasaray SK vs. Fenerbahçe SK
Volume:
$1,192,320
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Süper Lig game, scheduled for Sunday, April 26, 2026 between Galatasaray SK and Fenerbahçe SK.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's draw market contains a unique cancellation clause that resolves to Yes if the game is canceled without a make-up, while Kalshi's three-way market structure does not explicitly address this scenario. This creates conflicting outcomes for the edge case of permanent cancellation.Hero Tip:
The divergence only materializes if the match is permanently canceled. For normal match completion (win, loss, or draw), all platforms resolve identically. Monitor TFF.org for any cancellation announcements. If cancellation occurs, Polymarket draw traders profit while Kalshi traders face ambiguity. Consider this tail risk when sizing positions.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets covering Fenerbahçe win, Galatasaray win, and draw. All reference 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Unique clause: draw market resolves Yes if game is canceled with no make-up. Postponements keep markets open. Primary source: TFF official statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours of conclusion.
- Kalshi: Three separate binary markets (Galatasaray wins, Fenerbahçe wins, Tie wins), each resolving Yes only if that outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation clause provided. Implicitly, cancellation would likely resolve all three to No, contradicting Polymarket's draw resolution.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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