TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
"Forbidden Fruits" Rotten Tomatoes score?
Volume:
$210,899
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score for the film 'Forbidden Fruits' (2026), with resolution occurring on March 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket assess whether the film will achieve various score thresholds, ranging from 45 to 95 on the Tomatometer scale.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents a logically redundant and ambiguous multi-condition structure (11 overlapping thresholds) without explicit precedence or fallback, while Polymarket uses discrete binary threshold markets with a clear data-unavailability fallback rule. The two platforms do not resolve to the same outcome space.Hero Tip:
Polymarket's structure is clearer for traders: each threshold is a separate binary contract. Kalshi's 11-condition design is ambiguous—clarify whether this represents 11 separate markets or a single market with multiple resolution paths. If Kalshi is a single market, the lowest threshold (45) would logically dominate, making the higher thresholds redundant. Cross-platform arbitrage risk exists if Kalshi resolves as 'Yes' for any score above 45, while Polymarket's 76+ threshold market resolves 'No' for a score of 50.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Eleven conditional resolution statements, all tied to March 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, with thresholds of 45, 50, 55, 60, 65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, and 95. No explicit statement of which condition governs if multiple are satisfied, and no fallback rule if score is below 45. Key quote: 'If Forbidden Fruits has a Tomatometer score of above 45...then the market resolves to Yes' through 'above 95.'
- Polymarket: Five independent binary markets asking 'Will Forbidden Fruits score at least [88/85/82/79/76]?' with explicit fallback: 'This market will resolve to No if no data is available by April 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.' Each threshold is a separate contract with clear Yes/No outcomes and a 4-day data-availability grace period.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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