TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Flyers vs. Capitals
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 31 at 7:00PM ET: If the Flyers win, the market will resolve to "Flyers". If the Capitals win, the market will resolve to "Capitals". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use different threshold interpretations for over/under markets. Kalshi resolves YES when goals exceed the stated threshold (e.g., over 4.5 means 5+), while Polymarket explicitly states resolution thresholds that differ by one goal in some cases (e.g., O/U 4.5 resolves Over at 5+, but O/U 5.5 resolves Over at 6+), creating potential misalignment on boundary outcomes.Hero Tip:
If the final score is exactly at a half-goal boundary (e.g., 5 total goals), verify which platform's threshold applies. On Kalshi, 'over 4.5' resolves YES at 5 goals. On Polymarket, 'O/U 4.5' also resolves Over at 5 goals. However, Polymarket's shootout rule (adding 1 goal to the winner) may produce different totals than Kalshi's standard scoring, so confirm the final score methodology before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers 8 separate over/under markets at thresholds 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, and 9.5 goals, each resolving YES if the combined total exceeds that threshold. No explicit shootout adjustment rule is stated; resolution appears based on regulation and overtime scoring only.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers 4 over/under markets (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) with explicit resolution thresholds (5, 6, 7, 8 goals respectively) and includes a specific shootout rule: 'In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.' This shootout adjustment is absent from Kalshi's terms.
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