TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Fluminense FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol
Description
Fluminense FC will face Associação Chapecoense de Futebol in a Campeonato Brasileiro Série A match scheduled for April 26, 2026. The markets assess three mutually exclusive outcomes: a Fluminense victory, a draw, or a Chapecoense victory, evaluated strictly on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time (excluding extra time or penalties). Resolution depends on official CBF statistics or credible consensus reporting if official data is unavailable within 2 hours post-match.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market structure is logically incoherent: all three outcome markets (Fluminense win, Draw, Chapecoense win) resolve YES simultaneously, violating mutual exclusivity. Polymarket markets are properly structured as mutually exclusive binary outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi markets as presented. The resolution logic creates a logical impossibility where a single match result triggers YES on multiple mutually exclusive outcome markets. Polymarket offers the only coherent market structure for this event.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three mutually exclusive binary markets: (1) Fluminense win resolves YES only if Fluminense wins, NO otherwise; (2) Draw resolves YES only if match ends in a draw, NO otherwise; (3) Chapecoense win resolves YES only if Chapecoense wins, NO otherwise. Exactly one market will resolve YES. Cancellation with no make-up resolves Draw to YES, others to NO. Resolution source: official CBF statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours of match conclusion.
- Kalshi: Three markets with identical resolution logic: (1) 'If Fluminense wins...then resolves to Yes'; (2) 'If Tie wins...then resolves to Yes'; (3) 'If Chapecoense wins...then resolves to Yes'. This structure creates a logical contradiction: a single match outcome (e.g., Fluminense victory) would trigger YES on market 1 but the same outcome cannot simultaneously trigger YES on markets 2 and 3. No cancellation clause provided. The resolution framework is fundamentally broken.
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