This event group covers prediction markets for the winner of Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage (June 11-27, 2026). Group K consists of Colombia, Portugal, Uzbekistan, and a playoff winner from Jamaica/Democratic Republic of Congo/New Caledonia. Markets resolve to the team that finishes first in the group according to official FIFA standings and tiebreak procedures.
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All four platforms (Kalshi, Predict, Polymarket, Limitless) apply identical resolution logic: the team finishing first in Group K per official FIFA standings, with tiebreak procedures applied, resolves as the winner; cancellation or lack of declaration by September 30, 2026 resolves to Other.
Primary resolution logic:
Official FIFA information (https://www.fifa.com/); consensus of credible reporting as secondary source
Core resolution logic:
Resolution occurs when the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group K stage concludes and final standings are published by FIFA
The team that finishes in first place in Group K wins the market
If multiple teams tie on points, the official FIFA tiebreak procedure (goal differential, goals scored, head-to-head record, etc.) determines the group winner
Markets cover five possible outcomes: Colombia, Portugal, Uzbekistan, Democratic Republic of Congo (or Jamaica/New Caledonia playoff winner), or Other
All individual team markets (e.g., 'Will Portugal win Group K') resolve Yes if that team finishes first, No otherwise
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Tied Group Winner: If two or more teams finish with identical points, goal differential, and goals scored, the official FIFA 2026 World Cup tiebreak procedure applies (head-to-head record, then disciplinary record, then draw if necessary). Markets resolve according to the official FIFA determination.
Group Stage Cancellation or Postponement: If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed beyond September 30, 2026, or no winner is officially declared by that date, all markets resolve to 'Other'.
Playoff Team Uncertainty: Group K includes a playoff winner from Jamaica, Democratic Republic of Congo, and New Caledonia. Markets referencing 'Congo DR' or the playoff winner resolve based on whichever team ultimately qualifies and finishes first in the group.
Source Conflict: If FIFA.com and credible reporting diverge, FIFA.com is the authoritative source. Credible reporting consensus is used only if official FIFA information is unavailable.
Timing:
Resolution occurs after the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group K stage concludes (on or before June 27, 2026). Final resolution must be declared by September 30, 2026, or markets resolve to Other.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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