TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
FIFA World Cup Group E Winner
Description
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Official FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); credible reporting consensus as secondary sourceCore resolution logic:
- Resolution occurs when the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group E stage concludes and final standings are official
- The team with the highest points (wins × 3 + draws × 1) finishes first and resolves markets to Yes for that team
- If two or more teams tie on points, FIFA's official tiebreak procedure (goal differential, goals scored, head-to-head record, etc.) determines the group winner
- Markets resolve to the winning team's name or 'Other' if applicable
- If Group E is cancelled, postponed beyond September 30, 2026, or no winner is declared by that date, all team-specific markets resolve to No and 'Other' markets (if present) resolve to Yes
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Tied Group Winners: If multiple teams finish with identical records, the official 2026 FIFA World Cup tiebreak procedure determines the winner. All platforms explicitly state they will follow this procedure.
- Group Stage Cancellation or Postponement: If the group stage is cancelled or postponed after September 30, 2026, markets resolve to 'Other'. This applies uniformly across all platforms.
- No Winner Declared: If no winner is officially declared for Group E by September 30, 2026, markets resolve to 'Other'.
- Multiple Platforms, Single Outcome: Kalshi lists four separate Yes/No markets (one per team). Predict and Polymarket offer individual team markets plus 'Other'. Limitless offers individual team markets. All resolve to the same underlying fact: which team wins Group E.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official completion and publication of Group E final standings by FIFA, expected by end of June 2026. Deadline for resolution is September 30, 2026; if unresolved by then, markets resolve to 'Other'.Follow the signals, not the noise
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