TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
FIFA World Cup Group D Winner
Description
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Official FIFA.com records; credible reporting consensus as secondary sourceCore resolution logic:
- Resolution occurs when Group D final standings are officially published by FIFA following the group stage matches (June 11-27, 2026)
- The team with the highest points (wins × 3 + draws × 1) finishes first and resolves markets to Yes for that team
- If two or more teams are tied on points, FIFA's official tiebreak procedure applies in this order: goal difference, goals scored, head-to-head record, disciplinary record, and drawing of lots if necessary
- Markets resolve to the single team that finishes first after all tiebreaks are applied
- If Group D stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or no winner is declared by that date, markets resolve to 'Other' or 'No'
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Tied Group Winners: If multiple teams finish with identical records after head-to-head play, the official FIFA tiebreak procedure determines the group winner. Markets resolve to the single winner per FIFA's tiebreak rules, not to multiple teams.
- Cancellation or Postponement: If the World Cup group stage is cancelled or postponed beyond September 30, 2026, all markets resolve to 'Other' or 'No' depending on market structure.
- Group Composition: Group D confirmed teams are USA, Paraguay, Uruguay, and one team from the Kosovo/Romania/Slovakia/Türkiye playoff. Only these four teams can win the group.
- Market Structure Variation: Kalshi and Predict offer individual team Yes/No markets; Polymarket and Limitless offer both individual team markets and an 'Other' catch-all option. All resolve consistently to the official group winner.
Timing:
Resolution occurs immediately after the final Group D match is completed and official FIFA standings are published (expected late June 2026). Markets must resolve by September 30, 2026, or default to 'Other'/'No'.Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.