TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock
Volume:
$109,500
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming J1 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for Friday, April 24, 2026 between FC Tōkyō and FC Mito Holly Hock.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market structure is logically incoherent: all three outcome markets (Tokyo win, Mito win, Tie) resolve YES independently, violating mutual exclusivity. This creates a logical contradiction where multiple markets cannot simultaneously resolve YES for a single match outcome.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets in this group. The resolution logic is fundamentally broken—a match cannot simultaneously result in a Tokyo win AND a Mito win AND a tie. Polymarket offers coherent, mutually exclusive resolution logic; Kalshi's structure makes it impossible to determine which market should resolve YES given any actual match result.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three mutually exclusive markets: Tokyo Win resolves YES only if Tokyo wins (NO otherwise); Draw resolves YES only if match ends in a draw (NO otherwise); Mito Win resolves YES only if Mito wins (NO otherwise). Exactly one market resolves YES per match outcome. Resolution based on official J-League statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours post-match.
- Kalshi: Three independent YES/NO markets with identical resolution trigger: 'If [outcome] wins/ties the match, then the market resolves to Yes.' All three markets use the same resolution condition structure, meaning if Tokyo wins, all three markets (Tokyo Win, Mito Win, Tie) would technically satisfy their individual resolution criteria as written. This creates logical impossibility: 'If Tokyo wins, then [Tokyo market] resolves Yes' AND 'If Mito wins, then [Mito market] resolves Yes' cannot both be true for a single match result, yet the Kalshi language does not establish mutual exclusivity or a tiebreaker mechanism.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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