TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld
Volume:
$466,483
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Bundesliga 2 match between FC Schalke 04 and DSC Arminia Bielefeld scheduled for March 6, 2026. Three markets across Polymarket and Kalshi track the match outcome: Schalke win, draw, and Bielefeld win. All markets resolve based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi differ on cancellation resolution logic. Polymarket's draw market uniquely resolves YES on cancellation, while win markets resolve NO. Kalshi provides no explicit cancellation guidance across any outcome market.Hero Tip:
Cross-platform traders should hedge cancellation risk asymmetrically. On Polymarket, a canceled match favors the draw market; on Kalshi, outcomes remain undefined. Confirm Kalshi's cancellation protocol with support before the match. Monitor official Bundesliga sources for any postponement notices.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate markets (Schalke win, draw, Bielefeld win) all reference 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Cancellation logic is asymmetric: draw market resolves YES if canceled with no make-up; win markets resolve NO. Postponement keeps markets open until completion. Primary source is official Bundesliga statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours of conclusion.
- Kalshi: Three outcome markets (Bielefeld win, Schalke win, Tie) all explicitly cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. No cancellation or postponement language provided. Resolution source is not specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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