TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart
Volume:
$3,876,317
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming UEFA Europa League game, scheduled for Thursday, March 19, 2026 between FC Porto and VfB Stuttgart.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi offers four total goals markets (>1.5, >2.5, >3.5, >4.5) that resolve independently on goal thresholds, while Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive outcome markets (Porto win, Stuttgart win, draw). The platforms measure fundamentally different settlement dimensions: Kalshi resolves on aggregate goal count, Polymarket on match result.Hero Tip:
If you trade Kalshi's goal markets, your YES/NO outcome depends on total goals scored, not who wins. On Polymarket, your outcome depends on the final result (1-0 Porto win and 1-0 Stuttgart win both resolve differently despite identical goal counts). A 2-2 draw resolves YES on Polymarket's draw market but NO on all four Kalshi markets. Conversely, a 4-0 Porto win resolves YES on Kalshi's >3.5 market but NO on Polymarket's draw and Stuttgart win markets. These are not hedges—they are orthogonal bets.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi settles on aggregate goal count thresholds independent of match result. Four separate markets resolve YES if total goals exceed 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, or 4.5 respectively. Quote: 'If Stuttgart and Porto collectively score more than [X] total goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket settles on mutually exclusive match outcomes (Porto win, Stuttgart win, or draw). Each market resolves YES only if that specific result occurs within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Quote: 'If FC Porto wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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