TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC
Volume:
$1,754,347
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming UEFA Europa League game, scheduled for Thursday, April 9, 2026 between FC Porto and Nottingham Forest FC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi settles on goal-differential thresholds (markets resolve YES if either team wins by >1.5 or >2.5 goals), while Polymarket settles on simple win/loss/draw outcomes. The platforms use fundamentally different resolution scopes: Kalshi requires specific margin thresholds, whereas Polymarket resolves on any Porto win, any Nottingham win, or a draw.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Kalshi, your YES outcome requires a decisive margin (>1.5 or >2.5 goals); a 1-0 or 1-1 result will resolve NO on all four Kalshi markets. On Polymarket, a 1-0 Porto win resolves YES on the Porto win market and NO on the draw/Nottingham markets. Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket outcomes will align—they measure different things.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi uses goal-differential thresholds as the sole resolution criterion. All four markets resolve YES only if Porto wins by >2.5 goals, Nottingham wins by >1.5 goals, Porto wins by >1.5 goals, or Nottingham wins by >2.5 goals respectively. Matches with margins of ≤1.5 goals resolve NO on all markets. Key quote: 'If Porto wins by more than 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Nottingham wins by more than 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket uses simple binary outcomes (Porto win YES/NO, Nottingham win YES/NO, draw YES/NO) with no goal-differential thresholds. A 1-0 Porto victory resolves YES on the Porto win market regardless of margin. Key quote: 'If FC Porto wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' and 'If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.