TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. FC Tōkyō
Volume:
$169,308
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a J1 League soccer match between FC Mito Holly Hock and FC Tōkyō scheduled for March 14, 2026. Three binary markets across Polymarket and Kalshi predict the match outcome: Mito Holly Hock win, draw, or FC Tōkyō win, all resolving based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's draw market contains a unique cancellation clause (resolves YES if canceled) that diverges from standard match outcome resolution logic and is not mirrored in Kalshi's markets. This creates asymmetric payoff scenarios in a cancellation event.Hero Tip:
If you are long the draw on Polymarket and short on Kalshi, a match cancellation creates a profitable arbitrage but also operational risk. Verify Kalshi's actual cancellation policy in their terms; if they void rather than resolve, you face basis risk. Recommend hedging or closing positions if cancellation becomes likely.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets (Mito win, Draw, Tokyo win). Draw market uniquely resolves YES if match is canceled with no makeup game. Win markets resolve NO in cancellation. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes' (draw only).
- Kalshi: Three binary markets covering all outcomes (Mito win, Draw, Tokyo win). No explicit cancellation clause provided; all markets resolve YES only if the specified outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Cancellation handling is implicit and undefined.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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