TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
FC Metz vs. FC Nantes
Volume:
$737,960
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Ligue 1 game, scheduled for Sunday, April 5, 2026 between FC Metz and FC Nantes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Nantes win, Draw, Metz win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines three non-mutually-exclusive markets that all resolve YES for any single outcome. This creates a logical contradiction: under Kalshi's structure, all three markets would resolve YES simultaneously for any match result, violating basic market design principles.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across both platforms assuming equivalent exposure. On Polymarket, buying all three outcomes hedges to a guaranteed loss (three bets, one winner). On Kalshi, buying all three outcomes guarantees a win on all three (logical impossibility for a real match). Clarify with each platform whether Kalshi's markets are actually three separate binary contracts or a single categorical contract mislabeled as three binaries.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket structures the match outcome as three mutually exclusive binary markets. Each market resolves YES for exactly one outcome (Nantes win, Draw, or Metz win) and NO for all others. The description for the Draw market uniquely states 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes,' creating a special case where cancellation triggers YES instead of NO.
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines three separate binary markets using identical resolution logic: 'If [outcome] wins the match, then the market resolves to Yes.' This structure implies all three markets resolve YES for any single match result (e.g., if Nantes wins, all three markets resolve YES because each asks 'does this outcome occur?'). This contradicts standard match-outcome market design and creates logical impossibility.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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