TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
FC Lorient vs. Racing Club de Lens
Volume:
$458,399
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Ligue 1 soccer match between FC Lorient (home) and Racing Club de Lens scheduled for March 14, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket assess the match outcome (win/draw/loss) and goal-margin thresholds, all evaluated at 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi uses goal-margin thresholds (>1.5 and >2.5 goals) as binary triggers, while Polymarket uses simple match outcomes (win/draw/loss). The markets measure different dimensions of the same event and cannot be directly cross-referenced.Hero Tip:
Treat Kalshi and Polymarket markets as separate instruments. Kalshi markets reward high-margin victories; Polymarket markets reward any victory regardless of margin. Confirm final goal differential at settlement to resolve Kalshi markets correctly. Polymarket markets resolve on match outcome alone.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Four independent binary markets based on goal-margin thresholds. Market 1: Lorient >2.5 goals = Yes. Market 2: Lens >2.5 goals = Yes. Market 3: Lens >1.5 goals = Yes. Market 4: Lorient >1.5 goals = Yes. Multiple markets can resolve Yes simultaneously if goal margin is large enough. Key quote: 'If Lorient wins by more than 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Three mutually exclusive outcome markets: (1) Lorient Win, (2) Draw, (3) Lens Win. Only one resolves Yes based on final match result. No goal-margin conditions. Key quote: 'If FC Lorient wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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