TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
FC Cincinnati vs. Toronto FC
Volume:
$605,200
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the outcome of an MLS soccer match between FC Cincinnati and Toronto FC scheduled for March 8, 2026. Markets track whether Cincinnati wins, Toronto wins, or the match ends in a draw, all measured at the conclusion of 90 minutes plus stoppage time (regular play only).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation logic creates a logical impossibility on Kalshi. If the match is canceled without a makeup game, Kalshi's rules state all three markets (Cincinnati win, Toronto win, and draw) resolve to Yes simultaneously, which violates the mutual exclusivity of match outcomes.Hero Tip:
If you hold positions on Kalshi, monitor cancellation risk closely. A full cancellation without makeup would trigger an illogical triple-Yes resolution. On Polymarket, cancellation is handled more cleanly: draw resolves Yes, team wins resolve No. For trading purposes, treat Kalshi's cancellation clause as a latent risk factor and price accordingly.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: All three markets (Cincinnati win, Toronto win, draw) resolve to Yes if the match is canceled without a makeup. This creates logical inconsistency since only one outcome can occur in a completed match. Quote: 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes' and same for both teams, with no explicit cancellation clause differentiating outcomes.
- Polymarket: Draw market resolves Yes on cancellation; Cincinnati and Toronto win markets resolve No. This is logically consistent with the premise that no match occurred. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes' (for draw) and 'will resolve No' (for team wins).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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