TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF
Volume:
$20,538,829
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks the outcome of a professional Champions League soccer match between FC Bayern München and Real Madrid CF scheduled for April 15, 2026. The market resolves based on the final result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, covering all three possible outcomes: Bayern Munich win, Real Madrid win, or a tie.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Bayern win, Real Madrid win, draw), while Kalshi collapses all three outcomes into a single market that resolves YES for any result. This creates a logical contradiction: Kalshi's market cannot distinguish between outcomes, making it fundamentally unresolvable as a predictive instrument.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's market. It resolves YES regardless of match outcome (Bayern win, Real Madrid win, or draw), making it a guaranteed payout with zero predictive value. Polymarket's three separate binary markets are the only tradeable venues for this event.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard sports betting logic: three independent binary markets, each resolving YES or NO based on a single outcome. Bayern win market resolves YES if Bayern wins in 90+stoppage minutes, NO otherwise. Real Madrid market resolves YES if Real Madrid wins in 90+stoppage minutes, NO otherwise. Draw market resolves YES if match ends level in 90+stoppage minutes, NO otherwise. Primary source is official UEFA statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours of conclusion. Exactly one market resolves YES.
- Kalshi: Outlier: Single market that resolves YES if 'Tie wins OR Bayern Munich wins OR Real Madrid wins' after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. This is a tautology—the market resolves YES for every possible match outcome, making it logically incoherent. No resolution source is specified, and the market provides zero information value.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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