TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin - More Markets
Volume:
$717,865
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
More markets for the Bundesliga game, scheduled for March 21 at 10:30 AM ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi diverge on market scope and resolution logic. Polymarket offers spread markets with specific goal-differential thresholds (Bayern -2.5, -1.5; Union -2.5, -1.5) and total-goals markets (O/U 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5), while Kalshi offers only four binary markets that resolve YES if either team wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, creating fundamentally different settlement outcomes for identical match scenarios.Hero Tip:
If you trade these markets across platforms, note that Polymarket's spread markets are directional (Bayern wins by 3+ resolves YES for Bayern -2.5), while Kalshi's markets are bidirectional (either team winning by 2.5+ resolves YES). A Bayern 3-0 win resolves YES on Polymarket's Bayern -2.5 spread but also YES on Kalshi's 2.5-goal market. Conversely, Polymarket's O/U markets have no direct Kalshi equivalent, so those outcomes cannot be cross-verified.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket offers eight distinct markets covering directional spreads (Bayern -2.5, -1.5; Union -2.5, -1.5), total goals (O/U 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5), and both-teams-to-score. Each market has independent binary outcomes tied to specific goal thresholds. For example, 'Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)' resolves YES if Bayern wins by 3+ goals, otherwise NO. This granular market structure allows traders to isolate specific outcome ranges.
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi offers four binary markets, each resolving YES if either team wins by a specified margin (1.5 or 2.5 goals). Markets 1 and 2 resolve YES if Union wins by 2.5+ OR Bayern wins by 2.5+. Markets 3 and 4 resolve YES if Union wins by 1.5+ OR Bayern wins by 1.5+. This bidirectional structure collapses directional information into single YES/NO outcomes, fundamentally different from Polymarket's directional spreads.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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