TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid - More Markets
Volume:
$166,709
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
More markets for the La Liga game, scheduled for March 22 at 9:00 AM ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use different threshold interpretations for spread markets. Kalshi resolves on 'more than' thresholds (>1.5, >2.5 goals), while Polymarket resolves on 'by X or more goals' thresholds (≥2, ≥3 goals), creating a one-goal discrepancy at key boundaries.Hero Tip:
If you bet on a spread market and the final margin is exactly 2 or 2.5 goals, your outcome may differ between platforms. For example, a 2-goal Barcelona win resolves YES on Polymarket's -1.5 spread but NO on Kalshi's >1.5 threshold. Verify which platform you are trading on before placing bets near these boundaries.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi uses strict 'more than' thresholds (>1.5 and >2.5 goals) for all four spread markets, meaning a 2-goal win does not satisfy the >1.5 condition and a 3-goal win does not satisfy the >2.5 condition. Key quote: 'If Vallecano wins by more than 1.5 goals' and 'If Barcelona wins by more than 2.5 goals'.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard sports betting convention: Polymarket uses 'by X or more goals' thresholds (≥2 for -1.5 spread, ≥3 for -2.5 spread), meaning a 2-goal Barcelona win satisfies the -1.5 condition. Key quote: 'FC Barcelona win the game by 2 or more goals' for the -1.5 spread and 'FC Barcelona win the game by 3 or more goals' for the -2.5 spread.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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