TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC
Volume:
$20,218,228
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the outcome of the FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC match scheduled for March 18, 2026, in the UEFA Champions League. Markets assess three mutually exclusive outcomes: a Barcelona win, a Newcastle win, or a draw, evaluated strictly within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time (excluding extra time and penalties).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Barcelona win, Draw, Newcastle win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines three non-mutually-exclusive markets that all resolve YES simultaneously for the same event outcome, creating a logical contradiction in market structure and settlement.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across both platforms assuming equivalent exposure. On Polymarket, buying YES on all three markets is a guaranteed loss (they cannot all resolve YES). On Kalshi, all three markets resolve YES for any outcome, making them redundant hedges. Clarify with each platform whether Kalshi's three markets are intended as separate contracts or a data entry error before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket structures the event as three mutually exclusive binary outcomes. Exactly one market resolves YES: 'Will FC Barcelona win', 'Will the game end in a draw', or 'Will Newcastle United FC win'. The rules explicitly state 'If FC Barcelona wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' — meaning the other two markets must resolve NO when Barcelona wins.
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines three separate markets that all resolve YES for any outcome: 'If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes', 'If Newcastle wins...then the market resolves to Yes', and 'If Barcelona wins...then the market resolves to Yes'. All three markets resolve YES simultaneously regardless of the match result, violating the principle of mutually exclusive outcomes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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