TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
FC Augsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart
Volume:
$2,720,925
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for Sunday, March 22, 2026 between FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket offers three separate binary markets (Stuttgart win, Augsburg win, draw) that are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, while Kalshi presents a single market that resolves YES for all three possible outcomes (Augsburg win, draw, or Stuttgart win), making Kalshi's market logically incoherent and unresolvable.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's market — it contains a fatal logical flaw. All three possible match outcomes (Augsburg win, tie, Stuttgart win) resolve to YES, meaning the market cannot distinguish between outcomes and will always resolve YES regardless of the result. Polymarket's three separate binary markets are the only coherent way to express this event.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier (coherent): Polymarket structures the event as three mutually exclusive binary markets — one for Stuttgart win, one for Augsburg win, and one for draw. Each resolves YES or NO based on the actual match outcome, ensuring exactly one market resolves YES and two resolve NO. Key quote: 'If VfB Stuttgart wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (Stuttgart market); 'If FC Augsburg wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (Augsburg market); 'If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (draw market).
- Kalshi: Outlier (incoherent): Kalshi presents a single market with three resolution conditions, all resolving to YES: 'If Augsburg wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Stuttgart wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' This means every possible match outcome triggers a YES resolution, rendering the market unable to differentiate between outcomes and making it fundamentally unresolvable as a prediction instrument.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.