TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,997,338

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,395,155,069

395,664

Markets across

30,076

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 5PM ET

Volume:
$251,781

Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 7, 2026

Closed: Mar 6, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$49,708
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,960 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$35,814
N/A
N/A
$11,173
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,920 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,777
N/A
N/A
$5,706
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,880 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,008
N/A
N/A
$5,598
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,840 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,115
N/A
N/A
$4,100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,129
N/A
N/A
$3,879
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,440 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,424
N/A
N/A
$3,423
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,760 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,050
N/A
N/A
$856
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,720 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$325
N/A
N/A
$290
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,040 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$260
N/A
N/A
$259
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,200 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$256
N/A
N/A
$255
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,240 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$145
N/A
N/A
$144
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$136
N/A
N/A
$135
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,480 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$128
N/A
N/A
$127
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,680 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$65
N/A
N/A
$64
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,600 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$48
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,360 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$34
N/A
N/A
$34
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,640 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$23
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,560 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$18
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,280 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,320 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,120 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,080 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,160 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,400 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$9
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down at a specific moment on March 6, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) 60-second average. Both measure directional price movement but rely on fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two platforms measure Ethereum price direction at the same timestamp using different data sources (Binance ETH/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks ERTI), different aggregation windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), and different resolution logic (binary comparison vs. 50 threshold levels). This creates material risk of conflicting outcomes.Hero tip: Polymarket and Kalshi are measuring different things. Polymarket is a true binary: did the 1H candle close higher than it opened on Binance? Kalshi is 50 separate binary markets, each asking if ERTI exceeded a specific price level. CF Benchmarks ERTI and Binance spot prices can diverge. Verify which index your counterparty is using before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves UP if ETH/USDT close price >= open price for the 1-hour candle starting at 5 PM ET on March 6, 2026. Resolves DOWN otherwise. Data source: Binance ETH/USDT pair, 1H candle. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: 50 independent binary markets, each with a different price threshold (999.99 to 2959.99). Each resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks ERTI before 5 PM EST exceeds its threshold. Data source: CF Benchmarks Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI), 60-second window. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EST is above [threshold] at 5 PM EST on Mar 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.