TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 5PM ET
Volume:
$251,781
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down at a specific moment on March 6, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) 60-second average. Both measure directional price movement but rely on fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two platforms measure Ethereum price direction at the same timestamp using different data sources (Binance ETH/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks ERTI), different aggregation windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), and different resolution logic (binary comparison vs. 50 threshold levels). This creates material risk of conflicting outcomes.Hero Tip:
Polymarket and Kalshi are measuring different things. Polymarket is a true binary: did the 1H candle close higher than it opened on Binance? Kalshi is 50 separate binary markets, each asking if ERTI exceeded a specific price level. CF Benchmarks ERTI and Binance spot prices can diverge. Verify which index your counterparty is using before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves UP if ETH/USDT close price >= open price for the 1-hour candle starting at 5 PM ET on March 6, 2026. Resolves DOWN otherwise. Data source: Binance ETH/USDT pair, 1H candle. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 50 independent binary markets, each with a different price threshold (999.99 to 2959.99). Each resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks ERTI before 5 PM EST exceeds its threshold. Data source: CF Benchmarks Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI), 60-second window. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EST is above [threshold] at 5 PM EST on Mar 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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