TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 5PM ET
Volume:
$12,511
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down at a specific moment on March 5, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) with 40 discrete price bands. The markets measure the same directional outcome but employ fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ different price indices (Binance ETH/USDT spot vs. CF Benchmarks ERTI) and different measurement structures (binary candle comparison vs. 40 discrete price bands). This creates settlement value mismatch risk and potential for conflicting outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Polymarket's binary UP/DOWN is based on intraday candle mechanics; Kalshi's YES/NO is based on a 60-second ERTI average hitting one of 40 predefined bands. Spot-index basis risk and timing precision (candle close vs. 60-second average) are material. Verify your position's exposure to the correct underlying before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves UP if Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle close price >= open price at 5 PM ET on March 5. Resolves DOWN otherwise. Single authoritative source: Binance spot market graph display. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 40-band index market. Resolves YES if 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks ERTI before 5 PM EST falls within ANY of 40 predefined price ranges (1290-1329.99, 1330-1369.99, ... 2770-2809.99, or above 2809.99). Resolves NO only if average is below 1290 or in unmapped gaps. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EST is between [X-Y]..., then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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