TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET

Volume:
$225,687

Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET

 - Polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 21, 2026

Closed: Mar 20, 6:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$37,554
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,100 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$28,214
N/A
N/A
$13,808
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,060 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$14,993
N/A
N/A
$7,322
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,980 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,759
N/A
N/A
$7,302
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,940 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,501
N/A
N/A
$7,296
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,100 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,446
N/A
N/A
$6,446
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,020 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,784
N/A
N/A
$1,117
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,900 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,019
N/A
N/A
$965
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,860 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$970
N/A
N/A
$602
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,740 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$630
N/A
N/A
$605
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,820 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$127
N/A
N/A
$127
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,780 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$74
N/A
N/A
$74
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,580 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,620 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,540 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,220 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,140 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,180 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,660 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,420 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,460 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,380 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,260 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,700 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down on March 20, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) 60-second average. Both markets resolve based on price data at the same moment in time but from fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use different price indices (Binance ETH/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks ERTI), different measurement windows (1-hour candle open/close vs. 60-second average), and different resolution logic (binary direction vs. threshold-based). The same moment in time will produce different outcomes on each platform.Hero tip: These markets measure different things. Polymarket is directional (up or down). Kalshi offers 50 separate threshold markets. Binance spot and CF Benchmarks ERTI can diverge by 2-5% or more. If you trade both, expect basis risk. Choose the platform whose data source matches your hedge or view.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves UP if Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle close >= open at 5 PM ET on March 20. Resolves DOWN otherwise. Single outcome per market. Data source: Binance official ETH/USDT pair.
  • Kalshi: 50 separate threshold markets. Each resolves YES if CF Benchmarks ERTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific price level (ranging 1099.99 to 3059.99). No binary up/down logic; purely threshold-based. Data source: CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.