TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$230,557,910
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,202,344,730
501,342
Markets across
13,602
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,822
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET
Volume:
$225,687
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down on March 20, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) 60-second average. Both markets resolve based on price data at the same moment in time but from fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different price indices (Binance ETH/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks ERTI), different measurement windows (1-hour candle open/close vs. 60-second average), and different resolution logic (binary direction vs. threshold-based). The same moment in time will produce different outcomes on each platform.Hero Tip:
These markets measure different things. Polymarket is directional (up or down). Kalshi offers 50 separate threshold markets. Binance spot and CF Benchmarks ERTI can diverge by 2-5% or more. If you trade both, expect basis risk. Choose the platform whose data source matches your hedge or view.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves UP if Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle close >= open at 5 PM ET on March 20. Resolves DOWN otherwise. Single outcome per market. Data source: Binance official ETH/USDT pair.
- Kalshi: 50 separate threshold markets. Each resolves YES if CF Benchmarks ERTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific price level (ranging 1099.99 to 3059.99). No binary up/down logic; purely threshold-based. Data source: CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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