TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$230,557,910
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,202,344,730
501,342
Markets across
13,602
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,822
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 5PM ET
Volume:
$152,357
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down on March 18, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) averaged over 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT, while Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison for the same time window.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
The two platforms use different price indices (CF Benchmarks ERTI vs. Binance ETH/USDT spot) and different resolution logic (discrete price bands vs. binary candle comparison), creating potential for conflicting outcomes on the same date and time.Hero Tip:
Monitor both CF Benchmarks ERTI and Binance ETH/USDT independently leading up to March 18, 5 PM ET. Kalshi's 40 price bands leave gaps where neither Yes nor No resolves (market may cancel or default to No). Polymarket always resolves binary. Price divergence between the two indices is possible due to index methodology and exchange-specific liquidity. Consider hedging across platforms or exploiting arbitrage if the indices diverge significantly near resolution time.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Uses CF Benchmarks Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) averaged over 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT on March 18, 2026. Market resolves Yes if the average falls within any of 40 predefined price bands (1540-1579.99, 1580-1619.99, 1620-1659.99, ... up to 3020-3059.99, or above 3059.99, or below 1540). Resolves No if ERTI falls in gaps between bands. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is between [X]-[Y] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Uses Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle that begins at 5 PM ET on March 18, 2026. Resolves to Up if close price >= open price, Down otherwise. Resolution source is exclusively Binance official ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Down.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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