TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Description
This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price increases or stays flat during a specific 4-hour window on March 18, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket uses Chainlink's ETH/USD data stream to compare end-of-window price against start-of-window price, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) sampled at 5:00 PM EDT with multiple strike prices. The two platforms employ fundamentally different measurement methodologies, data sources, and time windows.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two platforms use incompatible data sources (Chainlink vs. CF Benchmarks ERTI), different time windows (4–8 PM ET vs. 5 PM EDT snapshot), and different resolution mechanics (directional comparison vs. multiple strike-based binaries). Basis risk is high.Hero Tip:
Treat Polymarket and Kalshi as separate bets. Polymarket is a simple directional bet over a 4-hour window; Kalshi offers granular strike selection but at a single point-in-time (5 PM EDT). Price indices can diverge by 1–3% due to constituent differences. Hedge or arbitrage only if you have real-time access to both data feeds.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional price comparison using Chainlink ETH/USD. Resolves Up if price at 8:00 PM ET >= price at 4:00 PM ET; otherwise Down. Single binary outcome. Source: https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd
- Kalshi: 40 separate binary markets on CF Benchmarks ERTI at 5:00 PM EDT, each with a different strike price (1499.99 to 3059.99). Each market resolves Yes if 60-second average ERTI > strike, No otherwise. No directional comparison; pure level-based resolution.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.