TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Volume:
$133,680

$2,180 or above

 - Kalshi

$2,180 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 19, 2026

Closed: Mar 18, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$2,180 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$55,369
N/A
N/A
$35,213
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,140 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,792
N/A
N/A
$8,955
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,083
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,100 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,179
N/A
N/A
$3,157
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,060 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
$40
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,220 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,856
N/A
N/A
$12,422
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,300 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,773
N/A
N/A
$4,658
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,260 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,113
N/A
N/A
$3,143
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,340 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,993
N/A
N/A
$3,169
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,380 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,865
N/A
N/A
$2,880
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,420 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,872
N/A
N/A
$1,838
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,540 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$861
N/A
N/A
$861
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,460 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$807
N/A
N/A
$797
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,500 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$473
N/A
N/A
$473
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,580 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$316
N/A
N/A
$316
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,620 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$288
N/A
N/A
$288
Settled
No
kalshi

$3,060 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,860 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,980 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,860 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$2,740 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,900 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,700 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$1,740 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,940 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price increases or stays flat during a specific 4-hour window on March 18, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket uses Chainlink's ETH/USD data stream to compare end-of-window price against start-of-window price, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) sampled at 5:00 PM EDT with multiple strike prices. The two platforms employ fundamentally different measurement methodologies, data sources, and time windows.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two platforms use incompatible data sources (Chainlink vs. CF Benchmarks ERTI), different time windows (4–8 PM ET vs. 5 PM EDT snapshot), and different resolution mechanics (directional comparison vs. multiple strike-based binaries). Basis risk is high.Hero tip: Treat Polymarket and Kalshi as separate bets. Polymarket is a simple directional bet over a 4-hour window; Kalshi offers granular strike selection but at a single point-in-time (5 PM EDT). Price indices can diverge by 1–3% due to constituent differences. Hedge or arbitrage only if you have real-time access to both data feeds.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Directional price comparison using Chainlink ETH/USD. Resolves Up if price at 8:00 PM ET >= price at 4:00 PM ET; otherwise Down. Single binary outcome. Source: https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd
  • Kalshi: 40 separate binary markets on CF Benchmarks ERTI at 5:00 PM EDT, each with a different strike price (1499.99 to 3059.99). Each market resolves Yes if 60-second average ERTI > strike, No otherwise. No directional comparison; pure level-based resolution.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.