TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5PM ET
Volume:
$214,513
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down on March 13, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) with multiple price thresholds. Both measure directional price movement at the same timestamp but rely on fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct price indices and measurement windows create settlement value mismatch. Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close; Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks ERTI 60-second average across 50 price thresholds. Both occur at 5 PM ET on March 13, 2026, but the underlying data sources and granularity differ fundamentally.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Polymarket UP and Kalshi YES at the same threshold are correlated. Binance spot prices and CF Benchmarks ERTI can diverge. Polymarket is a single binary outcome; Kalshi is a ladder of 50 independent price-level markets. Trade each on its own merits and monitor both indices separately on March 13.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves UP if Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle close price >= open price at 5 PM ET on March 13, 2026. DOWN otherwise. Single outcome, no thresholds. Source: Binance ETH/USDT pair only.
- Kalshi: 50 separate price-level markets. Each resolves YES if CF Benchmarks ERTI 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging 1049.99 to 3009.99). No single binary outcome; instead, a ladder of independent markets. Source: CF Benchmarks ERTI only.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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