TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5PM ET

Volume:
$214,513

$2,090 or above

 - Kalshi

$2,090 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Mar 13, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$2,090 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30,818
N/A
N/A
$8,661
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,010 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$21,544
N/A
N/A
$7,055
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,050 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$19,027
N/A
N/A
$7,107
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,970 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$18,002
N/A
N/A
$12,893
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,930 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15,930
N/A
N/A
$8,308
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,810 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,563
N/A
N/A
$699
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,850 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,289
N/A
N/A
$1,220
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,370 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,022
N/A
N/A
$983
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,890 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$660
N/A
N/A
$518
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,730 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$554
N/A
N/A
$413
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,770 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$549
N/A
N/A
$541
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,050 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$453
N/A
N/A
$453
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,490 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$450
N/A
N/A
$377
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,610 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$420
N/A
N/A
$419
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,450 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$394
N/A
N/A
$394
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,090 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$254
N/A
N/A
$254
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,130 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$254
N/A
N/A
$254
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$208
N/A
N/A
$208
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,290 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$187
N/A
N/A
$154
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,690 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$147
N/A
N/A
$146
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,530 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$136
N/A
N/A
$136
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,570 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$97
N/A
N/A
$97
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,650 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$91
N/A
N/A
$90
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,330 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$91
N/A
N/A
$91
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,210 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$52
N/A
N/A
$52
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down on March 13, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) with multiple price thresholds. Both measure directional price movement at the same timestamp but rely on fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct price indices and measurement windows create settlement value mismatch. Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close; Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks ERTI 60-second average across 50 price thresholds. Both occur at 5 PM ET on March 13, 2026, but the underlying data sources and granularity differ fundamentally.Hero tip: Do not assume Polymarket UP and Kalshi YES at the same threshold are correlated. Binance spot prices and CF Benchmarks ERTI can diverge. Polymarket is a single binary outcome; Kalshi is a ladder of 50 independent price-level markets. Trade each on its own merits and monitor both indices separately on March 13.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves UP if Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle close price >= open price at 5 PM ET on March 13, 2026. DOWN otherwise. Single outcome, no thresholds. Source: Binance ETH/USDT pair only.
  • Kalshi: 50 separate price-level markets. Each resolves YES if CF Benchmarks ERTI 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging 1049.99 to 3009.99). No single binary outcome; instead, a ladder of independent markets. Source: CF Benchmarks ERTI only.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.