TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,997,338

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,395,155,069

395,664

Markets across

30,076

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5PM ET

Volume:
$153,817

$1,930 or above

 - Kalshi

$1,930 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Mar 1, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$1,930 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15,731
N/A
N/A
$6,542
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,890 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,183
N/A
N/A
$3,696
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,850 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,392
N/A
N/A
$1,382
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,570 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,810 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$96
N/A
N/A
$90
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,450 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$95
N/A
N/A
$95
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,330 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$87
N/A
N/A
$87
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,210 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$65
N/A
N/A
$65
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,650 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$57
N/A
N/A
$47
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,290 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$53
N/A
N/A
$53
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,050 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$53
N/A
N/A
$53
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,130 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,170 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$48
N/A
N/A
$48
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,610 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$43
N/A
N/A
$43
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$43
N/A
N/A
$43
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,690 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$42
N/A
N/A
$42
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,770 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$41
N/A
N/A
$41
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,090 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
$40
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,410 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$39
N/A
N/A
$39
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,490 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$38
N/A
N/A
$38
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,370 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
$37
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,530 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$36
N/A
N/A
$36
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,730 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$36
N/A
N/A
$36
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$48,726
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,010 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,700
N/A
N/A
$13,244
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down at a specific moment on March 1, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) with multiple price thresholds. The core question is identical across platforms, but the data sources and resolution mechanics differ significantly.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use different price indices (Binance ETH/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks ERTI) and different resolution mechanics (binary candle comparison vs. 40 threshold-based markets), creating potential for conflicting outcomes at the same timestamp.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Binance spot price and CF Benchmarks ERTI can diverge. Polymarket is a simple binary (up vs. down), while Kalshi offers 40 granular threshold markets. Choose your platform based on which data source you trust and which resolution granularity matches your trading thesis.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary up/down resolution based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at March 1, 5 PM ET. Single data source: Binance spot market.
  • Kalshi: 40 separate Yes/No markets, each tied to a different ERTI price threshold (1049.99 to 2609.99). Each resolves Yes if the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks ERTI before 5 PM EST exceeds its respective threshold. Data source: CF Benchmarks aggregated index.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.