TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5PM ET
Volume:
$153,817
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down at a specific moment on March 1, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) with multiple price thresholds. The core question is identical across platforms, but the data sources and resolution mechanics differ significantly.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different price indices (Binance ETH/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks ERTI) and different resolution mechanics (binary candle comparison vs. 40 threshold-based markets), creating potential for conflicting outcomes at the same timestamp.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Binance spot price and CF Benchmarks ERTI can diverge. Polymarket is a simple binary (up vs. down), while Kalshi offers 40 granular threshold markets. Choose your platform based on which data source you trust and which resolution granularity matches your trading thesis.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary up/down resolution based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at March 1, 5 PM ET. Single data source: Binance spot market.
- Kalshi: 40 separate Yes/No markets, each tied to a different ERTI price threshold (1049.99 to 2609.99). Each resolves Yes if the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks ERTI before 5 PM EST exceeds its respective threshold. Data source: CF Benchmarks aggregated index.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.