TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 5PM ET

Volume:
$281,413

$2,040 or above

 - Kalshi

$2,040 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 4, 2026

Closed: Apr 3, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$2,040 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$47,777
N/A
N/A
$19,655
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$32,506
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$2,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$29,558
N/A
N/A
$13,822
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,960 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17,439
N/A
N/A
$6,292
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,920 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15,367
N/A
N/A
$9,960
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,880 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$12,111
N/A
N/A
$11,847
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,840 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,985
N/A
N/A
$10,563
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,886
N/A
N/A
$9,643
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,040 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$629
N/A
N/A
$629
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,240 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$426
N/A
N/A
$426
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,680 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$403
N/A
N/A
$389
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,480 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$381
N/A
N/A
$381
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,560 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$363
N/A
N/A
$358
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$344
N/A
N/A
$344
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,760 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$278
N/A
N/A
$264
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,160 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$237
N/A
N/A
$237
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,120 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$224
N/A
N/A
$224
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,200 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$208
N/A
N/A
$208
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,080 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,520 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$191
N/A
N/A
$188
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,640 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$108
N/A
N/A
$96
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,280 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$82
N/A
N/A
$82
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,720 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$29
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,360 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17
N/A
N/A
$17
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$1,400 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
$16
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, thresholds, and underlying assets. Polymarket resolves based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) with 50 distinct price thresholds, creating incompatible settlement outcomes.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. A YES on Kalshi (ERTI above any threshold) does not guarantee a YES on Polymarket (ETH/USDT close >= open). The markets measure different price indices at different granularities—Polymarket tracks intraday candle direction, Kalshi tracks absolute ERTI levels. Arbitrage risk is high if you assume convergence.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on Binance ETH/USDT pair direction within a single 1-hour candle. Market resolves YES if close price is greater than or equal to open price for the 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 3. Source is explicitly 'Binance ETH/USDT pair' with resolution data from the top-of-graph display: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) absolute price levels, not price direction. Contains 50 separate YES/NO conditions, each testing whether the 60-second average of ERTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 999.99 to 2959.99). No single unified resolution logic; instead, each threshold is an independent binary outcome. Example: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 1159.99 at 5 PM EDT on Apr 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.