TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, thresholds, and underlying assets. Polymarket resolves based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) with 50 distinct price thresholds, creating incompatible settlement outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. A YES on Kalshi (ERTI above any threshold) does not guarantee a YES on Polymarket (ETH/USDT close >= open). The markets measure different price indices at different granularities—Polymarket tracks intraday candle direction, Kalshi tracks absolute ERTI levels. Arbitrage risk is high if you assume convergence.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on Binance ETH/USDT pair direction within a single 1-hour candle. Market resolves YES if close price is greater than or equal to open price for the 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 3. Source is explicitly 'Binance ETH/USDT pair' with resolution data from the top-of-graph display: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) absolute price levels, not price direction. Contains 50 separate YES/NO conditions, each testing whether the 60-second average of ERTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 999.99 to 2959.99). No single unified resolution logic; instead, each threshold is an independent binary outcome. Example: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 1159.99 at 5 PM EDT on Apr 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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