TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$69,774
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on April 20, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket measures this as a simple price comparison at the start versus end of the window using Chainlink's ETH/USD feed, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) measured at 5 PM EDT, with 40 distinct price thresholds each triggering independent Yes resolutions.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi uses a multi-tiered price threshold framework with 40 discrete settlement levels based on CF Benchmarks' ERTI, while Polymarket uses a simple directional comparison (Up vs Down) based on Chainlink ETH/USD data. The platforms measure different indices and employ fundamentally different resolution methodologies.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on which of 40 specific ERTI price thresholds will be exceeded by 5 PM EDT on April 20, 2026. On Polymarket, you are simply betting whether Chainlink's ETH/USD price at 8:00 PM ET is greater than or equal to the price at 4:00 PM ET. Your Kalshi position resolves based on CF Benchmarks data; your Polymarket position resolves based on Chainlink data. These are different data sources and different settlement mechanics—arbitrage or hedging between them carries basis risk.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 40 separate binary markets, each tied to a specific ERTI price threshold. All thresholds are measured as 'above' a given level (e.g., above 1499.99, above 1539.99, etc.). Resolution is YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT exceeds the threshold. Data source: CF Benchmarks ERTI. Settlement time: 5 PM EDT on April 20, 2026.
- Polymarket: Single binary market with directional logic: resolves to Up if Chainlink ETH/USD price at end of range (8:00 PM ET) is greater than or equal to price at start of range (4:00 PM ET); otherwise resolves to Down. Data source: Chainlink ETH/USD data stream (https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd). Settlement time: end of 4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET window on April 20, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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