TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Elche CF vs. CA Osasuna
Volume:
$1,813,575
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the professional La Liga soccer match between Elche CF and CA Osasuna scheduled for February 13, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket are betting on the final outcome (win, loss, or draw) after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory: all three mutually exclusive outcomes (tie, Elche win, Osasuna win) are specified to resolve to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket uses three separate binary markets with proper mutual exclusivity.Hero Tip:
The Kalshi market is broken and should not be traded. It will resolve to Yes regardless of the actual match outcome, rendering it useless for price discovery. Trade only on Polymarket's three separate markets, which correctly partition the outcome space into draw, Elche win, and Osasuna win.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Market structure contains a logical contradiction. All three possible outcomes (Tie, Elche win, Osasuna win) are each specified to resolve to Yes. This means the market will resolve Yes no matter what happens on the field, making it impossible to distinguish between outcomes. Key quote: 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Elche wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Osasuna wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive outcomes. Market 1 resolves Yes only if draw occurs. Market 2 resolves Yes only if Elche wins. Market 3 resolves Yes only if Osasuna wins. Exactly one market will resolve Yes based on the actual match result. Key quote: 'If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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