TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
EC Bahia vs. EC Vitória
Volume:
$253,217
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Brazilian Série A soccer match between EC Bahia and EC Vitória scheduled for March 11, 2026. Markets across Polymarket and Kalshi track the three mutually exclusive outcomes: Bahia win, Vitória win, or draw, all evaluated at 90 minutes plus stoppage time (regular play only).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
The draw market on Polymarket resolves YES upon game cancellation (no makeup), whereas Kalshi provides no explicit cancellation resolution for the draw outcome, creating asymmetric payoff profiles.Hero Tip:
Traders holding draw positions should verify Kalshi's cancellation protocol. Polymarket draw holders are protected; Kalshi draw holders face ambiguity. If cancellation occurs, Polymarket draw resolves YES while Kalshi may default to NO or remain open, creating a settlement mismatch.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets (Bahia win, Vitória win, draw). All three share identical postponement logic (remain open until played). Draw market uniquely resolves YES if game is canceled with no makeup. Win markets resolve NO on cancellation. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.
- Kalshi: Three outcome-based markets (Vitória win, Tie, Bahia win) that resolve YES only if the game is played and that outcome occurs. No explicit cancellation clause provided for any outcome. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time, no extra time or penalties.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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