TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
EC Bahia vs. CA Paranaense
Volume:
$154,238
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the match outcome between EC Bahia and CA Paranaense scheduled for April 1, 2026, in the Brazilian Serie A championship. Markets are offered on Polymarket (three binary outcomes: Bahia win, draw, Paranaense win) and Kalshi (a single market covering all three outcomes). Resolution is based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation logic divergence: Polymarket's draw market resolves Yes on cancellation, while Kalshi's unified market also resolves Yes on tie/cancellation. However, Polymarket's win markets resolve No on cancellation, creating an asymmetry in how the three outcomes are treated across platforms.Hero Tip:
Monitor cancellation risk closely. If the match is canceled, Polymarket traders holding draw positions profit while win positions lose; Kalshi traders holding tie positions profit. Ensure your position aligns with your actual cancellation risk assessment, and consider the different payout structures across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: Bahia win (Yes if Bahia wins, No otherwise), Draw (Yes if draw, No otherwise), Paranaense win (Yes if Paranaense wins, No otherwise). On cancellation with no make-up: Bahia and Paranaense win markets resolve No; Draw market resolves Yes. Key quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No' (win markets) and 'this market will resolve to Yes' (draw market).
- Kalshi: Single unified market covering all three outcomes (Tie, Paranaense win, Bahia win), each resolving to Yes if that outcome occurs. No explicit cancellation clause provided, but implicit logic suggests tie outcome (which includes draw) would resolve Yes on cancellation. Key quote: 'If Tie wins the Bahia vs Paranaense professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer game... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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