TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ducks vs. Oilers
Description
On March 28, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET, the Anaheim Ducks will play the Edmonton Oilers in an NHL game. Markets across Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing outcomes on three dimensions: (1) the moneyline winner (Ducks vs. Oilers), (2) total goals scored by both teams combined (Over/Under at multiple thresholds: 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5), and (3) margin of victory (Kalshi: wins by >1.5 or >2.5 goals). All markets reference the same game and will settle based on the final official NHL score, including overtime and shootout adjustments.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi settles on goal-differential thresholds (spread-based outcomes: >1.5 or >2.5 goal margins), while Polymarket settles on moneyline winner and total goals scored. The platforms use fundamentally different resolution criteria for the same game.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Kalshi, you are betting on margin of victory (Oilers or Ducks by 2+ or 3+ goals). If you bet on Polymarket moneyline or totals, you are betting on who wins or total goals, regardless of margin. A 2-1 Oilers win resolves YES on Kalshi (>1.5 margin) but only resolves 'Oilers' on Polymarket moneyline—these are different market types. Ensure your position matches your intended exposure.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi uses goal-differential thresholds as the sole resolution criterion. All four markets resolve YES if either team wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. For example, 'If Edmonton wins by over 1.5 goals in the Anaheim at Edmonton professional hockey game originally scheduled for Mar 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This is a spread-based (margin) framework, not a moneyline or totals framework.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers three distinct market types: (1) Moneyline (Ducks vs. Oilers winner), (2) Over/Under totals at 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 combined goals, and (3) Spread: Oilers (-1.5), which resolves 'Oilers' if they win by 2+ goals, otherwise 'Ducks'. The moneyline and totals markets are independent of margin; the spread market overlaps conceptually with Kalshi but uses different thresholds and terminology ('Oilers' vs. 'Ducks' instead of YES/NO).
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