TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ducks vs. Flames
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 26 at 9:00PM ET: If the Ducks win, the market will resolve to "Ducks". If the Flames win, the market will resolve to "Flames". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different event types: Kalshi settles on moneyline winner (either team winning resolves to YES), while Polymarket offers multiple distinct markets (moneyline, spread, and over/under totals). Kalshi's binary structure creates a logical contradiction where both possible outcomes resolve identically to YES.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's market is logically broken — it will resolve YES regardless of whether Ducks or Flames win, making it unsuitable for directional betting. Use Polymarket's moneyline market ('Ducks vs. Flames') for true winner selection, or Polymarket's over/under and spread markets for alternative outcomes. Do not trade Kalshi's market as written.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's market structure creates a tautology where the market resolves YES if 'ANA Ducks wins' OR 'CGY Flames wins' — meaning the market resolves YES in all possible game outcomes, rendering it non-predictive and unresolvable as a binary bet. The rules state 'If ANA Ducks wins...then the market resolves to Yes' and separately 'If CGY Flames wins...then the market resolves to Yes,' with no NO resolution condition defined.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers four separate, mutually exclusive markets: (1) Moneyline ('Ducks vs. Flames' — resolves Ducks or Flames based on winner), (2) Spread ('Spread: Ducks (-1.5)' — resolves Ducks if win by 2+, else Flames), and (3) Four over/under totals (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 — each resolves Over/Under based on combined goals). Each Polymarket contract has a single, well-defined resolution path with clear YES/NO or Over/Under outcomes.
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