TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PARIVISION (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group A
Description
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Tundra Esports and PARIVISION in the ESL One Birmingham Group A, initially scheduled for March 22 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Tundra Esports" if Tundra Esports win the match against PARIVISION. This market will resolve to "PARIVISION" if PARIVISION win the match against Tundra Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve fundamentally different events. Kalshi resolves based on the tournament winner (PARIVISION or Tundra Esports winning ESL One Birmingham 2026), while Polymarket resolves based on specific in-game statistics and match outcomes (ultra kills, rampages, roshan kills, barracks destruction, kill counts, day/night cycle timing, first blood, and individual game winners). These are entirely separate resolution scopes with no logical overlap.Hero Tip:
Kalshi bettors are wagering on the ESL One Birmingham 2026 tournament champion. Polymarket bettors are wagering on granular in-game performance metrics and individual game outcomes. A single match result cannot satisfy both platforms' markets simultaneously in a meaningful way — Kalshi cares only about the tournament winner, while Polymarket cares about dozens of specific in-game events. Do not assume a Kalshi YES resolves Polymarket markets; they are independent events.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves to YES if either PARIVISION or Tundra Esports wins ESL One Birmingham 2026, regardless of the specific match outcome or in-game statistics. The market description states 'If PARIVISION wins ESL One Birmingham 2026... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Tundra Esports wins ESL One Birmingham 2026... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Tie wins ESL One Birmingham 2026... then the market resolves to Yes.' This means all three outcomes (PARIVISION win, Tundra win, or tie) resolve to YES, making the market logically contradictory and unresolvable as written.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves based on 21 separate in-game and match-outcome markets covering ultra kills, rampages, roshan kills, barracks destruction, total kill counts at multiple thresholds, day/night cycle timing, first blood, individual game winners, and the series winner. Each market has independent resolution criteria tied to specific in-game events or statistics documented on dotabuff.com. For example, 'Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill?' resolves YES only if a single player kills 4+ enemy heroes in rapid succession, and 'Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 1?' resolves YES only if total kills reach 49 or more.
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