TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs
Volume:
$2,152,332
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Best-of-3 (BO3) lower bracket match between Team Falcons and PARIVISION at ESL One Birmingham Playoffs, scheduled for March 27, 2024 at 11:30 AM ET. Markets span series outcomes, individual game winners, kill totals, objective achievements (Roshan kills, barracks destruction), and in-game events (first blood, rampages, ultra kills, day/night cycle timing). All markets depend on the match being played and completed within the scheduled window.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Kalshi resolves based on whether the match occurs at all (binary: match happens = YES, match doesn't happen = NO), while Polymarket resolves individual game-level metrics (kills, Roshan, barracks, rampages, daytime, first blood) with granular thresholds and extensive forfeit/remake clauses. Kalshi's two markets are outcome-agnostic; Polymarket's 68 markets are outcome-dependent and game-specific.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on match occurrence only—the actual game results are irrelevant. If you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on specific in-game events and statistics. These are entirely different markets with different risk profiles. A Kalshi YES does not predict any Polymarket outcome, and vice versa. Do not assume correlation between platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's two markets (Kalshi #1 and #2) both resolve YES if the match is played at all, regardless of winner or game results. The resolution logic is: 'If Team Falcons wins ESL One Birmingham 2026: PARIVISION vs. Team Falcons Dota 2 match originally scheduled for Mar 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If PARIVISION wins ESL One Birmingham 2026: PARIVISION vs. Team Falcons Dota 2 match originally scheduled for Mar 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This means both markets resolve YES in all scenarios where the match is completed, making them outcome-agnostic binary match-occurrence bets.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket's 68 markets resolve on specific in-game metrics and events: total kills per game (thresholds from 33.5 to 64.5), Roshan kills, barracks destruction, rampages, ultra kills, first blood, daytime/nighttime cycle timing, and match/game winners. Each market has independent resolution criteria tied to official Dotabuff data or credible video evidence. Markets resolve 50-50 if games are not played, forfeited, remade, or delayed beyond 7 days. Polymarket explicitly states 'If Game X is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game X is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50,' creating outcome-dependent resolution.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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