TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs
Description
This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket round 1 match between MOUZ and Xtreme Gaming in the ESL One Birmingham Playoffs, initially scheduled for March 27 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Xtreme Gaming. This market will resolve to "Xtreme Gaming" if Xtreme Gaming win the match against MOUZ. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Kalshi resolves based on tournament outcome (either team winning ESL One Birmingham 2026), while Polymarket resolves based on specific in-game metrics (kill counts, first blood, rampages, day/night cycle timing, Roshan kills, barracks destruction) for individual games that may never be played if the series ends early.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on match outcome only. If you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on granular game-state events that depend on the series going to Game 2 or Game 3. A Kalshi YES resolution (either team wins the tournament) does NOT guarantee any Polymarket game-specific markets will resolve to a definite outcome — many will resolve 50-50 if games are not played. Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket outcomes are correlated.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi resolves YES if either MOUZ or Xtreme Gaming wins ESL One Birmingham 2026 in the BO3 match scheduled for March 27, 2026. This is a binary tournament-outcome market with no game-level granularity. Key quote: 'If MOUZ wins ESL One Birmingham 2026: Xtreme Gaming vs. MOUZ Dota 2 match originally scheduled for Mar 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Xtreme Gaming wins ESL One Birmingham 2026: Xtreme Gaming vs. MOUZ Dota 2 match originally scheduled for Mar 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket resolves on 40+ distinct in-game metrics across Games 1, 2, and 3, including total kills at multiple thresholds, first blood by team, rampages, ultra kills, day/night cycle timing, Roshan kills, barracks destruction, and game winners. Many markets explicitly resolve 50-50 if games are not played or series ends early. Key quote: 'If Game 2 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to 50-50.'
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