TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 31, 5PM ET
Volume:
$1,574
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down at a specific moment on March 31, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) with a 60-second average. The two platforms measure different price sources and employ fundamentally different resolution mechanics.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different price sources (Binance DOGE/USDT candle vs. CF Benchmarks DOGEUSD_RTI index) and incompatible resolution mechanics (binary candle comparison vs. 37 absolute price thresholds). This creates settlement value mismatch risk.Hero Tip:
These are not equivalent markets. Polymarket measures intracandle momentum on Binance; Kalshi measures absolute price levels from CF Benchmarks. Exchange basis risk and index methodology differences could cause divergent outcomes. Choose your platform based on which price source you trust.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down based on Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves UP if close price >= open price for the candle beginning at March 31, 5 PM ET. Resolves DOWN otherwise. Source: Binance spot trading data displayed on the 1H chart.
- Kalshi: 37 separate Yes/No markets, each tied to a distinct price threshold (0.0099999 through 0.1899999) of CF Benchmarks' DOGEUSD_RTI. Each market resolves Yes if the 60-second average of the index before 5 PM EDT exceeds its threshold. Source: CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.