TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 21, 5PM ET
Volume:
$2,350
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour window on March 21, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT candle data (close vs open), while Kalshi references CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) with a 60-second average. Both markets attempt to capture the same directional movement but rely on different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different data sources (Binance spot candle vs CF Benchmarks real-time index) and measurement methods (discrete open/close vs 60-second rolling average). Kalshi's resolution criteria contain 37 redundant Yes-conditions, indicating either a critical data integrity failure or unresolvable logical ambiguity.Hero Tip:
Polymarket is resolvable and clear: compare Binance DOGE/USDT 1H candle open to close at 5 PM ET on March 21, 2026. Kalshi's market is currently unresolvable due to malformed resolution logic—all 37 conditions resolve to Yes, making the threshold meaningless. Request clarification from Kalshi before trading; if no response, treat as a data integrity failure and avoid the market.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Uses Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle data. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the candle beginning at 5 PM ET on March 21, 2026; otherwise Down. Single, unambiguous source and methodology. Key quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Uses CF Benchmarks Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) with a 60-second average before 5 PM EDT. Contains 37 resolution conditions, all resolving to Yes if the average exceeds thresholds ranging from 0.0049999 to 0.1849999. Critical flaw: all 37 conditions are redundant Yes-outcomes, creating logical incoherence. Key quote: 'If there is a 60 second average of CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' (repeated 37 times with different thresholds).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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