TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 5, 5PM ET
Volume:
$1,761
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Dogecoin's price will be up or down at 5 PM ET on April 5, 2026. Polymarket uses Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) with a 60-second average. The markets measure the same directional outcome but rely on different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, metrics, and logic. Polymarket resolves based on Binance DOGE/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI) price bands. These are incompatible settlement frameworks that will produce different outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Polymarket's binary Up/Down outcome depends on a single exchange (Binance) and a single candle's open vs. close. Kalshi's outcome depends on whether a 60-second average of a different price index falls into one of 37 specific price bands—most bands resolve YES, making Kalshi heavily skewed toward YES resolution. Arbitrage or hedging between these platforms is extremely risky.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on Binance DOGE/USDT pair only, comparing the open and close price of a single 1-hour candle. Market resolves UP if close >= open, DOWN otherwise. Uses a single exchange as the authoritative source: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Dogecoin Real-Time Index (DOGEUSD_RTI), not Binance. Uses a 60-second average of this index and resolves YES if the average falls into any of 37 predefined price bands (covering nearly all price levels from below 0.01 to above 0.185). The market structure implies NO resolution only if the price falls into unmapped gaps, making YES the heavily favored outcome by design.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.