TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Devils vs. Red Wings
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 11 at 5:00PM ET: If the Devils win, the market will resolve to "Devils". If the Red Wings win, the market will resolve to "Red Wings". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution scopes. Kalshi settles on margin-of-victory thresholds (1.5+ or 2.5+ goal wins), while Polymarket settles on total combined goals (Over/Under totals) and moneyline outcomes. These markets measure different aspects of the same game and will not necessarily align.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on margin of victory (how much one team wins by). If you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on total goals scored or which team wins. A 5-3 Devils win resolves YES on Kalshi (Devils +2) and YES on Polymarket moneyline (Devils win) and YES on O/U 4.5 (8 total goals), but a 2-1 Devils win resolves NO on Kalshi (only +1) while still resolving YES on Polymarket moneyline and YES on O/U 4.5 (3 total goals). Ensure your position matches your intended outcome.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi settles exclusively on margin of victory, with four markets covering Detroit wins by 1.5+ or 2.5+ goals and New Jersey wins by 1.5+ or 2.5+ goals. Key quote: 'If Detroit wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If New Jersey wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket settles on three independent dimensions: moneyline (which team wins), total combined goals (Over/Under 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5), and spread (Red Wings or Devils by 2+ goals). Key quotes: 'This market will resolve to Devils if the Devils win' (moneyline), 'This market will resolve to Over if the Devils and Red Wings combine to score 5 or more goals' (O/U 4.5), and 'This market will resolve to Red Wings if the Red Wings win the game by 2 or more goals' (spread).
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